NXT price $6+ with 50% free Ignis

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Is a NXT $6+ price tag possible with 50% free Ignis? With NXT block split due for announce on 21 December 2017 the 7 day race is on to grab as much NXT as possible to grab free Ignis on 01 January 2018. This hard hitting summary weighs weaknesses and threats against strengths and opportunities, culminating in surprising conclusions. Who else is saying don't touch Ardor with a long pole?

50% free Ignis with NXT at 28 December 2017!

So what does this mean for NXT owners? Could NXT bring a rewarding Christmas present and a good start to 2018?

NXT price was $0.65 when first written. At 17 December it was $0.79. Expect massive change (and a manipulated crash).

If you want to trade, HitBTC have low trading commissions. You will help us too, we receive tiny (very tiny) reward.


NXT price $6+ with free Ignis?

Here I am in my Scottish manor, with a roaring yule log fire in full crackle, mountains covered in snow, and a second glass of whisky. NXT and Ignis airdrop has me wondering. Right now, forget Bitcoin's tiny x16 increase during 2017 (NXT increased x112!). It looks like NXT presents the opportunity of the year, but should I trust Jelurida with my money?

NXT Ardor dilemma

Here's what's going on between my two brain cells.

I'm concerned that Lior Yaffe (AKA Riker), in Israel and co-founder of Jelurida, was at least in part responsible for the bizarre move of coinciding Christmas Day with splitting NXT for the start of Ardor blockchain and launch of Ignis. Then, contrary to published plans to split at NXT block 1,163,000, and post-ICO, Jelurida change both block split and date. That block split was important because knowledgeable investors knew they could potentially take an early exit.

Little evils like discrimination I can overcome in trading. Dishonesty I deal with head on. I was concerned Jelurida have a far worse evil, an evil so nasty it ruins executive teams and enterprises: naivety. It is that aspect, if it remains in the team, I would wish to draw their attention to. Some people could view an intended Christmas Day fork as anti-Christian; others as being a sleight to traders who risk to lose when home traders take an advantage; and others that it is simply awful to start a launch process fork to coincide with Christmas — and to predators who wish to flash launch their own fork (Segwit2x Bt2X?) they've left the door wide open, unless they knew. I'm concerned that others in the executive team have failed to address dumping and price manipulation on exchanges. That dumping and manipulation is not a guess: it is fact evidenced by forensic accounting from recorded trading activity. With plenty examples too, like NXT9.5 million from Jelurida to Bittrex between 13-21 December 2017. $multi-million organisations must deal with these issues, and deal with them in context with brand image. It's not just a problem for Jelurida, it's a problem throughout what has become the blockchain industry, and one that governments and public protection authorities around the world are dealing with right now. That's what my brain cells are pondering. I'm not doing a PR exercise for or against NXT and it's coin family, I'm exploring a balance and attempting to draw a conclusion as to how high NXT can climb if left to do so naturally and managed by a team that have the same strength as other top league cryptocurrency players. That balancing exercise must include identifying some of the darker sides of cryptocurrency ICOs. And shocking as it may seem to those who have no experience of a corporate boardroom, sometimes a "wake up" hand slammed on a desk causes action and positive outcomes.

Why darker aspects of cryptocurrency and ICOs? Why the "attitude"? Hey Mike, it's Christmas? Be nice! I know it's Christmas and I AM being nice given that Jelurida convinced me to put my money into their trust when there are signs of either the biggest Christmas heist in history, a breakdown in communicating to investors, or (far worse) incompetence with ordinary folk's money. That's whose paying for their dreams — you and me. I want to know a coherent capable team. But, but, but: what did I mean by Was a few moments ago? There's news --- for a start, there's new executives on the team!

Regardless of apparent threats to my investment, and given a few ifs, I believe that NXT and Ardor will rise in direct challenge to Ethereum, and possibly BTC. It's as plain as plain can be that, come 1st January launch, NXT/Ardor/Ignis together bring a quantum leap in blockchain technology. In combination with NXT being the major altcoin never being hacked, technologically beating BTC, ETH, LTC and the rest by a good margin, and NXT being the basis of other leading coins, why would NXT NOT shoot from $0.6x to $6+ in less than a month? Massive 50% free Ignis, other token airdrops of 10% with a future valuation, and Ignis with a $2+ futures value, is it possible to go wrong?

There's also considerations beyond more than two weeks. Will NXT grow by x500+ during 2018? Can I trust the NXT team? Do people really believe that Ardor price will grow when it's so immature and Ardor will take some time to gather processing nodes?

This NXT/Ardor dilemma is challenging my brain. For good reason too! If indications are true, then $thousands will become $millions by this time next year.

I'm working this through, in this personal conversation between me and myself. Though difficult at times, because some issues look like they belong with formal agencies and others are so exciting I want to tell friends, I attempt a balance wholly devoid of bias. That means having to deal with nasty stuff (and irritating objectors of the nasty variety) as well as things that please the not-so-easily pleased, no apologies. I don't apologise for the nice stuff either but you'll have to read on to get there!

BTW, I aim to be fair. If there are specific aspects of this article that are wrong or not too diplomatically worded, please provide feedback. I shall adjust. What I hope is that readers without much trading experience can get up to speed sufficently to hone their their own research and avoid the multitude of cryptocurrency trading traps ready to grab people by their money.

Ardor genesis and Ignis ICO

The story seems to begin in Summer 2017 when Ignis ICO kicks off. Parent company Jelurida receive €15+ million from ICO, a bit unlucky given the swathe of anti-BTC public body announcements causing BTC to crash. Of course, BTC recovered again.

Jelurida set out their plans on 09 July 2017 (https://nxtplatform.org/ignis-ico/). Notice at the end of the article:

"IMPORTANT NOTICE: All official information regarding the IGNIS ICO will be published on this website only. If you receive information from other sources always make sure that it is consistent with this page."
Except it wasn't Jelurida setting out it's plans, was it? The NXT Foundation, now ANG led by Elizabeth, seem to have a lot of sway as an organisation external to but connected with Jelurida, a registered company. After further digging I discover the ICO story didn't begin in 2017. In fact, the predecessor to ANG had a vote against ICO way back before April 2016. And the notion of using a vehicle, a NXT v2 vehicle to excuse an ICO, was mooted between Marc de Mesel and Lior Riker way back about 06 April 2016. I am informed that Jelurida was formed in October 2016. I'm an investor. I want to know about where my money's going. I'm like other investors. Had Elizabeth not given me reason to do so I would not have engaged, as an investor, in fieldcraft and due diligence, nor hear what is said in that video indicating formal links between the then NXT Foundation and Jelurida. Is someone outside Jelurida calling some of the shots of that company, or are they shareholders?

Given the association, it was surprising to discover registration details of the nxtplatform website (http://whois.domaintools.com/nxtplatform.org) being kept secret. That's contrary to European law on commercial websites AIUI. The same for nxter.org, who in October 2017 carried a road map of a NXT snapshot at block 1,630,000 (nxter.org/tag/cbt-nuggets/#Ardor_Release_Timeline) for Ardor blockchain genesis and Ignis airdrop. Why would Jelurida and their active associates want to hide anything? Is there anything here indicating actus reus non facit reum nisi mens sit rea or was this change pure naivety?

Now suspicious by what then appeared to be Jelurida's lack of candour I look more closely, at cogent evidence. I'm not raising anything of sinister conduct at this stage: merely exploring facets about who I'm putting trust in. Not that I'm bothered. I've done more than a bit of court representation, and drafting national legislation.

Apart from that article above, I distinctly recall seeing on Jelurida's website that 1,630,000 block figure and a reference to it being reached about 25 December. Ardor genesis block snapshot information was repeated at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2156522.msg23066387#msg23066387 on October 16, 2017, 02:13:46 AM, and ended with "Taken from https://www.jelurida.com/ardor-release-timeline, evidence that NXT genesis block details were available on Jelurida's website around 16 October 2017. Lo and behold that Ardor genesis snapshot block at 1,630,000 relied upon to attract investment in the ICO, and set to occur about Christmas day, was changed. It was not apparent on Jelurida's website, but that change occurred about the first week in December 2017 according to https://www.nxter.org/nxt-news-december-2017-i/#Ardor_release_time, not Jelurida's website.

Why did Jelurida change their time-line without explanation? Look at that Ardor release time-line link now. No mention of 1,630,000. The date has changed to 28 December. No explanation at the point of interest, where it should be.

So why's this detail important?

Ardor snapshot date change

When organisations go to market for public investment they do so on the basis of trust. They have an idea, they put it wholly and honestly to potential investors. If after consideration and analysis potential investors are convinced by the idea, they put their money in. If investors are misled it can be a brand killer, or worse.

In Jelurida's case, a significant part of the ICO was that free Ignis would be given at a snapshot taken on or very near Christmas Day, specifically when block 1,630,000 would probably be reached. Astute investors knew a large percentage of other investors would be too busy tucking into Christmas pudding and wine to bother about trading at the right time for maximum exit. Some investors also knew from calculations that the snapshot block would almost certainly occur a day or two before Christmas day. My calculations consistently displayed Christmas Eve. Astute investors knew they could hit the snapshot block and get out of NXT before most others, AND keep their high value free Ignis.

I'm bothered enough by all this to dig deeper to discover how far this side of the balancing exercise is weighted against positive rewards, in the next two weeks and over 2018. I should mention at this stage of my considerations that despite my concerns about Jelurida management they seem no worse than other top coin executives with more serious problems.

Then Lior Yaffe responds.

Thus far it may seem I'm having a dig at Lior. I'm not. I'm unfolding the road to corporate maturity, and the ability to take on big players in the blockchain game. I check Lior's feedback.

Checks have an effect on my perspective. I'm beginning to form a picture of what is really happening. Is Lior a talented software architect with vision and a calm disposition, persistently dogged by a committee of enthusiasts? He had every reason to bite at my critical observations but he didn't. He succinctly explained that the date for Ardor genesis block split from NXT was deliberately intended to coincide with a time ordinary folk have a small advantage over investment houses. All it had to do with Christmas was based on an employment holiday. I doff my hat to that! He explains enough to encourage me to dig further. Exchanges need to arrange things at block split time, not least for security reasons, protecting investors and avoiding frauds like double replay attacks. Exchanges must insist that coin wallets work too, for if it's a wallet with security breaches then the exchange gets the grief, not the wallet vendors. Unfortunately, Ardor wallet isn't available until after 28 December, exchanges cannot make their decisions to trade Ardor on it's own blockchain, and it's impossible to split Ardor from the NXT blockchain before they have wallets working to their satisfaction. Not having realised these factors before ICO, Jelurida are caught between a rock and hard place. I have my own boardroom stories of that situation: stressful doesn't describe it well enough! Personally, I would have delayed launch and said why, but they made their decision to redefine a new block to coincide with 28 December (smarty pants here suggested 1,636,000 to coincide with 03:30 UTC — they chose 1,636,363). Although they didn't defer launch date, Jelurida did carry on calmly, and from that video with Marc Mesel that seems to come from Lior. Mr Yaffe is starting to seem okay in the cockpit!

I pour a slightly larger Laphroaig whisky, under excuse it's festive season!

NXT price manipulation

Investors refer to big buyers and sellers as whales. Whales arrive and scoop up trades until their limit is quenched. There are also manipulators who place big orders sufficient to suggest to smaller investors there's no point in holding position. Small investors, minions ("the herd"), sell and price lowers. When a manipulative trade gets too close to actually being bought or sold the manipulative false trade is replaced at a slightly different level. This "peek-a-boo" action continues, at each stage lowering price.

Judges have a word for a deceptive trade causing loss to others. They call it fraud. Anyone helping that type of trader is party to the fraud, and criminally liable.

Peek-a-boo scams also operate to hold down the price of a currency pair that would otherwise rise.

NXT price rigging image taken 12Dec17
Figure 1: NXT price rigging image taken 12Dec17
Orders not being real, with no intention of being carried through, their sole purpose is to manipulate to the loss of other traders. Although coomon practice, and jailable, this is not market making.

Here's what page 70 of Master the Markets provides (edition 4, 2009, by TradeGuider Systems):

"To start the bull market process, an Index (or the stocks it represents) starts to fall… There will be a level reached… where weak holders will start to panic… As these traders sell, professional money will step in and start buying, because in their view, the stock can now be sold at a higher price at some point in the future. The panic selling has also given professional money the opportunity to buy without putting the price up against their own buying (accumulation)…"
Cryptocurrency exchanges are new compared to traditional, regulated, exchanges. New traders tend not to know the subtleties of professional trading or shenanigans of market predators. False trades lead to traders losing interest in a coin pair, and the exchange that allows it. They go elsewhere. False trades reduce volume, thus reducing a coin's competitiveness. There's a nice tool at alts-club.com for observing volume changes, and the effects of false trading, in almost real time.
NXT price rigging volumes change, image taken 12Dec17
Figure 2: NXT price rigging volume change, image taken 12Dec17
In these visuals taken from alts-club.com (one of my projects) and Poloniex I noticed USDT-NXT drop as BTC-ZEC, without trade manipulation, maintained it's position. A series of good trades were ruined as USDT_NXT dropped volume, and rank, on Poloniex.
NXT rigging trades 01-12Dec17
Figure 3: NXT rigging trades 01-12Dec17
It would be alarming if Jelurida failed to insist that exchanges stop manipulation of their currency.

It would be far more alarming if they were disaffecting or predating upon their own customer base by dumping their own coin or price rigging.

Jelurida dumping their own coin?

Persistent large BTC_NXT and USDT_NXT transactions indicate someone with a large amount of NXT. Someone continuously dumping their large pool at any price simply wants to convert to cash. Who could that be?

For reasons given later, this doesn't bother me (it indicates a potential huge price rise). Not only doesn't it bother me, but dumping scenarios are interesting because a) too many cryptocurrency producers do this, b) dumping represents a fundamental treachery against investors who backed the ICO coin owner, and so sleuthing it is engaging, c) it is easy to identify by forensic accounting and of interest to agencies, and d) when knowing perpetrators face jail time, it is entertaining to watch when graphical analysis is converted into a high speed video to display the obviousnous of this type of fraud, and thus discourage others.

The money launderers' scenario...

Why would money launderers use an emerging low value coin to launder instead of something directly convertible to cash on the street, like BTC? Serious money launderers dealing with large amounts are highly skilled at spreading loads into small chunks to avoid attracting attention. Overkilling a small currency like NXT does the opposite. They know it would attract attention, the exchange concerned would be contacted by authorities, and laundering activity stopped very quickly whilst detention and prosecution follows. Otherwise exchange executives risk facing criminal courts as accomplices.

Also, exchanges know who they're dealing with. KYC (Know Your Customer) is a requirement of banks that exchanges must deal with. The bank income, and pay bills from bank accounts. Exchanges hold extensive identity information that can easily matched person to trades. If a person or trading organisation is linked to money laundering they have life changing problems.

Ergo, it's not organised money launderers causing ordinary investors to lose.

How about Jelurida?

Jelurida obtained Euro15+ million in national currencies, BTC and other coins. They don't need to use their held back NXT reserves, roughly calculated at between 30M-40M NXT. Precise calulation may show much more.

Let's presume for a few moments that Jelurida executives have gone stark raving crazy with the added fantasy of not getting caught. In this state they dump large amounts of NXT.

Their first problem is that of being observed.

Professional and part time traders can easily see what's going on. A few, like me, hold data and can replay trading, have resources to conduct forensic accounting, produce compelling visual and financial effects of trade upon price, and have no difficulty displaying to public authorities that such conduct is a betrayal of their investors of the most serious nature.

Exposure inevitably leads to development houses deserting culprits for other platforms because if ICO executives can turn on investors, they obviously have the temperament to turn upon paying customers. Trust has gone. It kills development and business models. Ambitions too. Worse, though, with trading data readily available on the Internet from blockchains, investigative agencies can obtain orders of court to examine systems. They can then detect if, in addition to fraud, insider *and* unauthorised securities trading occurred.

Dumping leads to price reduction, obviously. Basic laws of the market apply, with excessive product leading to lower price. As regards basic laws of markets applying to exchange trading, when an alt-currency like NXT has potential to grow x10 between now and 28 December, it requires brute force to hold it back. Why kill NXT by holding it's price down with dumping? If there's dumping then it invokes interest of revenue authorities who want the tax on capital gains, thus exposing to investors in business accounts what was done and who were not told at the time of ICO that their investment could be disaffected by dumping. As a registered company, Jelurida must produce end of year accounts. Accounts display increase/decrease in assets. No way out of that scenario, is there?

Would Jelurida want to "improve" the chances of Ardor at launch on 01 January? A strategy of holding a coin back on price (NXT) to enhance another coin's price at launch (Ardor) is logical. However, doing this will, if discovered, cause investors to desert, with grave consequences for sister and niece coins Ardor and Ignis. Whilst the possibility of Ardor price rigging exists I've decided not to touch it in case it disappears when formal authorities investigate. As a long term coin, NXT is not in the same position. It is robust, safe, and attractive big players.

That in turn brings into focus the nature of issuing JLRDA tokens bearing, or indicating, the promise of an issue of Ardor tokens on 1st January. JLRDA as notes for other assets not yet issued brings it within the relam of securities traded without registered authorisation. Jelurida executives potentially face serious legal challenges, and possibly deportation to states that could impose substantial penalties (but see why I'm not bothered, below).

At this point in my personal acquisition of evidence, to found my own thoughts I can almost hear blinkered NXT/Ardor protagonists yelling I represent some sort of organisation or should declare some sort of bias. The fact is I regard my cryptocurrency trades as family money. Although well endowed with years I care for my 5-year old disabled child whose future provision of welfare I take very seriously. To those protagonists, I'm not allowing you to play games with or predate upon my child's future! Simples!

From historical data I've viewed, there's no doubt that false trades began as ICO was in progress and continued until after concluded. I suppose, if Jelurida were dumping, an "innocent" strategy would cease immediately, now exposed, having realised such tactics are counterproductive. When market rigging stops and prices increase through natural trade, then significant reductions in disposal would not disaffect markets. It would nonetheless achieve desired income because of higher returns. Well, guess what happened when I put up a draft and set a link to it where NXT/Ardor folk hang out? Dumping/rigging disappeared and NXT price shot upwards. Then NXT hovered around $2, dumping/rigging restarted, and NXT quickly descended to $1.78.

Add that Jelurida mentioned stating in the ICO white paper they would dispose of funds earned: but where did they say in that white paper they would disaffect markets by dumping NXT? 9.5 million NXT at around $1 in ony one week ending 21 December ob Bittrex alone, and NXT85,275,052 since 10 August disposed of also on Bittrex. More coming too — lots more.

Whilst it's relevant to observe markets and surmise who could operate peek-a-boo price rigging, I like to believe money launderers or Jelurida are NOT culprits. I hope I'm not wrong. Such stupidity deserves to get caught, with severe criminal and taxation penalties acting as a European deterrant to financially dangerous ICOs. I do not believe that a director who is a lawyer would have missed the end of year accounts trap. Great! Jelurida are clear!

Apparent discoveries from this research beg questions as to why large NXT holders, who are not mentioned above, would wish to trade their stash. One significant question concerns why, when in short time they are due to receive 50% Ignis with estimated futures currently listed at $2+ $4.30+, other free tokens, and significant increases in NXT price. Why would they attempt to sell instead of waiting less than two weeks? Another significant question concerns why finding NXT/Ardor/Ignis PR announcements has, since the beginning of December, been like discovering rocking-horse droppings. It is the run-up to Ardor/Ignis launch, we would expect a glut of announcements! Where's the PR at this important time? Is PR being held back whilst Ardor is given a false boost by strangling NXT? If that's the case, let's add securities issues to the stew.

Evidence regarding securities has an impact on my thinking. The "Howey test" has in the USA since 1946 defined what is and is not a security. Accelerating time to 2017, the US SEC's administrative order File No 3-18304 under the Securities Act (1933) led to a varied ICO definition of a security in the following terms, according to Coindesk's SEC Munchee Order a Recipe for Securities Violations" by industry lawyer, Katherine Cooper:

But the SEC's Munchee order provides significant additional insight into how SEC staffers think about six common elements of many ICOs in their determination whether an ICO is a securities offering under the Howey test: (1) whether the tokens are immediately usable, (2) the buyers' expectation whether the tokens will rise in value, (3) whether an expected rise in value will be derived from the efforts of others, (4) whether there will be a secondary market for the tokens, (5) how the ICO offering is advertised, and (6) how the proceeds of the ICO are to be used.
Ouch! According to that, Jelurida potentially engaged in a securities violation.

What an awful time to do it though! USA has several $multi-billion companies pivotal in international Internet, digital, media and software technology. Europe's GDPR becomes statutory at public law throughout Europe on 25 May 2018 and affects every country in the world where European citizens' data goes. Business models for Facebook, Google and other data giants are in critical danger of being trashed. USA people have strong attitudes towards the need to protect their interests. People like President Trump. USA has a strong doctrine of applying for extradition of people from outside states when USA laws are broken. The Jelurida incident provides an excuse for the USA to confront Europe for the purpose, internationally, of suppressing securities violations. Remember, securities violations committed by a bumbling bunch of company directors can also be used as templates for international criminal and terrorist organisations, or as fronts for state operated intelligence agencies. Europe will not lay down if confronted by the USA, as the UK has discovered in Brexit. European politicians will almost certainly use President Trump's support of Jerusalem in a somewhat dirty effort to point the finger at securities violators based there, in context with it being the base of the biggest Christmas heist in history.

Heist? Christmas? Biggest in history?

Look at it from an investigator's perspective. There's NXT, a platform operating for four years with it's own unit of transactional currency. Then the same outfit split into a company and raise funds from an ICO for NXT version 2. For the sake of conveying it is something different the new company call it Ardor. Ardor has a thing called child blockchains, which systems architects and developers in any other software field would call modules of Ardor. Investigators would quickly identify the first child chain, Ignis, as being a module of Ardor, but then ask why an ICO and another currency for it? Ardor already provides the transactional currency. Ignis currency is not therefore a necessary component, but if it is then why the need for Ardor when NXT is a currency of a previous version and not a different product? If Ignis is viable then Ardor is unnecessary. Either way, Ignis is not a true instrument, there at least being alternatives capable of doing the same thing. It fails the Howey test because at least one element of proof is that it is a security in itself or relies as a derivative of a security, Ardor. Now investigators have a reasonable apprehension that a crime has been committed, court orders can be obtained. An inevitable first step is to look at company accounts, fiat and digital. On the dumping side alone, if the amount traded in the levels of market prevailing at the time was high enough to change those markets, then there is enough for prosecution of other crime. If there was a failure to inform investors and potential investors they would be traded against to their loss, then there may be fraud. Either way, investigators have a case to be answered at law, and politicians can display public interest and found a basis for international cryptocurrency treaties. If politicians can point to investor income of NXT85,275,052 with current value of about $2 each they can claim $175 million taken from misinformed people, plus other unknown real and digital currency. Media will headline it something like the biggest Christmas heist in history.

I hope everyone involved can precisely display their personal income and how it fits lifestyle! Crucially, if anything like the above was done, those responsible now have a chance to reverse it, and show remorse by doing the right thing.

Now the good stuff, and why I'm not bothered about the type of market rigging dealt with so far.

Jelurida can spend millions putting the results of dumping/rigging in reverse. Recall my thoughts regarding protection of my little girl? If Ardor price dived drastically, where it belongs as an unproven product in live markets, and as the result of ICO millions being reemployed to reset NXT price upwards where it would have gone without interference, then there's no need to go noisy.

Another reason why I'm not bothered is if Jelurida executives ever came under focus of securities or other authorities, NXT would not go away. Someone would buy it out and put in a professional team. For code ownership background see ANG and licence/authors at https://github.com/Blackcomb/nxt. Coin technology, third party contracts and ICOs are thus protected from legal hyenas emerging to predate upon blockchain technology pathfinders. As for the emergence of legal actions, see Tezos and this. A new professional team would raise NXT price significantly.

If it's not anything mentioned above, is price suppression caused by USA exchanges allowing manipulation and predation upon any technology that isn't USA bred? NXT/Ardor/Ignis are European and so could be a target for attack. The cure for that is traders who think it's an exchange issue will move to an exchange out of USA. I doubt it's Chinese intervention: China's government took Chinese exchange malpractice out the equation by banning them, for which we have to thank their practical and robust cryptocurrency policy. If it's exchanges they will stop it if public authorities investigate, and prices will settle naturally.

One cure to trade rigging is for a whale or two (including Jelurida) to buy out false trades and let prices rise. Then manipulators, their tools of manipulation lost, would disappear (unless they had very big $multi-million pockets).

Jelurida have every reason to impress on exchanges that price rigging resulting from false trades must stop. Jelurida have a lawyer as Managing Director who will know how to do it, and work for investors and traders to make it happen!

Thus, we may not hear why price rigging stopped, but we shall reap the rewards of potentially massive price increases when the brakes come off.

This whole scenario looks set for massive NXT price explosion, like loosing reigns on a pedigree stallion after it's eaten morning oats!

Having dealt with the murkier side of ICOs, what about financial opportunity?

NXT financial opportunity

In the beginning I was only calculating whether NXT would rise by 5-10%. I use SWOT analysis during jottings. I like SWOT. It makes me think.

As the strengths of NXT in conjunction with an Ignis airdrop unfolded, and I researched opportunities presented by Ardor and Ignis technology, I had to recalculate. And recalculate. And recalculate. Looking back to 30th November, about two weeks ago, I realised NXT price had increased fourfold! After a little more research and calculation I realised NXT could increase more than *five hundred times* between now and next year. Okay, you're thinking this old guy's had a lot of whisky so come on, reveal the methodology for such phenomenal potential.

I should!

First, here's a not so little warning. In all things financial do your own research. Don't take my or anyone else's feedback because it certainly isn't professional or regulated advice. At most it's social rambling that can spark a tangent of your own research and thinking processes.

NXT Ignis

Hold NXT! Get Ignis! Sell NXT, don't get Ignis but stay safe! There's a lot of bull going on about whether to buy, sell or hold NXT.

Look at the NXT Ignis chart. Make your own mind up as to whether it's stupid to sell NXT before snapshot block 1636363 on 28 December 2017.

NXT Ignis profit
Figure 4: NXT Ignis profit
Figures are based on US$1,000 purchased and sold at a variety of prices. Note the massive difference Ignis futures makes to profit. Free 50% Ignis means traders can afford to make a loss of NXT and still return an overall profit! Do your own calculation on your purchase price and holdings. Eeven at present prices there seems lots of scope for increase, especially on the last two days including 28 December.

Cryptocurrency prices increases 2017

If you're like me, you take great satisfaction by being right about predicting a future unknown. Here, we're checking whether it's possible to make 500 times our investment within a year. For me, if I invest $50,000 I will make $25 million dollars. Within a year. I like free mansions, but is the notion nuts?

Cryptocurrency investors are in no different position to an aircraft passenger. Once airborne they simply cannot go out for a break (strictly speaking, they can: many painful breaks). Once they're in a market it's stupid to get out at the wrong time!

When a pilot commands an aircraft, he/she/it plots a navigation course. During the journey, el capitano reviews navigation in what navigators refer to as way-points. Pilot's are simple people. Their ambition is to make the number of *safe* landings equal the number of take-offs. Navigation helps them achieve that ambition. I've had my pilot's licence 30+ years: same take offs as landings so far!

NXT price performance

Way-point one checks price of some major crypto-currencies at the beginning of January 2017 and their change by mid-December. Figures were taken from Poloniex exchange. I've rounded up to whole numbers where appropriate.

Cryptocurrency price change
Figure 5: Cryptocurrency price change
Notice the five worst performers are also crypto-currencies with old or poorly implemented technology as compared to others (in order: ZEC[x8], REP[x8], BTC[x16], ETC[x20], and XMR[x21]). I'm flabbergasted why STR[x59], XRP[x66] and DASH[x73] did so well, but after taking into account their constant PR can understand why it's brand image that moved them.

Wise traders ought not ignore that it's not price that lifts their portfolios. It's ratios that lift portfolios. nearly 2,000% is good, but pale compared to 20,000+%

Look at NXT. It rose a staggering 112 times what it began 2017 with (in the last few days to x173 then x200+). If BTC did that during 2018 it would sell at $1,737,008 this time next year. That's not going to happen. Conversely, a sub $1 currency can easily rise dramatically? If NXT rose by x100 during 2018, from time of writing it would sell at $67.00. If x500 it would sell at $335.

Is it possible NXT reaches $335 in these markets by end of 2018? There is no evidence to extinguish that possibility. To discover if there's corroboration, examine the next way-point on this journey.

NXT capitalisation

Way-point two concerns capital flowing into markets. Coinmarketcap.com today has BTC at $288 billion capitalisation. " Global money supply is estimated at $36.8 trillion. Accordingly, the major cryptocurrency by capitalisation compares to about 0.8% global supply.

For a bit of guess work, let's assume that because money has flooded into crypto-currencies this last six months this flood will accelerate at similar rate of climb, to 2-3%, in 2018. That will capitalise BTC at about $1 trillion, equivalent to the money supply of some countires. Will that all go into BTC and stay there, lifting it's price by x4 to around $60k? Frankly, with more advanced and safer blockchain technologies than BTC, and the market being educated to that factor investors will look elsewhere, substantially lifting capitalisation and price of alternative currencies. If about 10% of "new money" settled on NXT/Ardor, as an advanced and safe technology (see below), it would raise it's capitalisation by more than x100. That's before capitalisation naturally drifts into NXT from other currencies as it the passes $1-2 mark (BTC and ETH?).

Way-point two corroborates way-point one without drift from our course towards $335. It's not certain but provides significant support in the balancing exercise, presuming the shift of traditional money into cryptocurrency continues.

NXT attracts capital from competition

Now to the third way-point: capital resettlement.

First off, what is "*capital resettlement*". It isn't an economic term used in markets context, not that I knew of. I needed a term to describe a sudden sandcastle effect transition from a currency with over-expanded capitalisation and price into emerging currencies. Capital resettlement fits.

Major currencies like BTC and ETH climb in price as the result of big brand marketing and word of mouth more than technical capability. Perception defeats product every time! Now, ordinary traders educate themselves to brand and technical aspects of both financial markets and blockchain technology. "The herd" will turn from taking the word of BTC and ETH protagonists, realising that coins like BTC are stale and ETH is both hackable and suffering delays caused by DDOS type products like Crypto Kitties. 2018 will see blockchain evolving into second generation technologies, but unlike these last three years newer blockchain technology teams will focus more upon brand and marketing instead of technical excellence.

PR led trends set by rapid social media communication has the power to change governments. They can also sandcastle any major cryptocurrency.

Big seaside sandcastles built by the "big boys" will face significant possibilities of being drowned by buckets of water. We know what happens to sandcastles when they're flooded! It happens very quickly.

Lots of alternative currencies will benefit from the sandcastle effect and resulting capital resettlement away from big coins to platforms with strong executive teams, strong PR, and strong technologies. Strong technologies and development tools bring hoards of developers, who in turn lift the profile and value of blockchains behind those technologies. The NXT/Ardor combination is a clear leader, the only thing holding it back was naive management. In the tiny insignificant backwater of Scotland I am aware of three major developments turning away from Ethereum and onto NXT for full transaction history features, and Ardor for transaction pruning with child chains (which NXT does not have). If there's so much interest here, it should be no surprise to discover hundreds of NXT/Ardor based releases in the next two years, if not thousands, each with their own marketplace, marketing and PR. I'm thinking of moving pre-ICO projects in my control away from Ethereum, but to what platform? From an executive persective, I need to know their community is neither reactive nor naive. There's no time for Trekky mentality.

Investment and development course adjustments will be made. Investors will steer for new peaks that stand out in blockchain terrain. NXT/Ardor stand out very well: if Jelurida manage their PR. More importantly at this stage of the journey. There's nothing to cause significant course drift from the possibility of a $335 NXT price.

Avoid Ardor!

The fourth way-point requires a course correction. There's a major trading obstacle: false perception.

That false perception concerns Ardor suddenly taking off and replacing NXT. It won't. From the last in a series of articles:

"There is plenty more to be said about all of these projects, but this will have to suffice for now… If I may leave you with a parting thought, it is this: after all is said and done, I see tremendous potential in several of these projects, but I am especially excited about Ardor. Its parent-chain/child-chain architecture simultaneously addresses two very important problems: how to cope with bloat, and how to offer a blockchain as a service to clients who do not have the resources or expertise to start their own blockchains. It is anybody’s guess what economic value markets will ultimately assign to Ardor’s solutions to these problems, but in my humble opinion, Ardor compares quite favorably to the competition on both points. I can’t wait to see what the future holds."
What the future holds. That says far better than I can: Ardor=later. Essentially, Ardor handles security for child chains like Ignis and takes transaction fees as a reward, avoiding blockchain bloat by node owners choosing which child chains they want to serve.

Ardor will launch on 1st January. Ardor has no track record as a live blockchain, everything having operated on a test net. Until now penetration testers, thieves, scam artists and fraudsters had no reason to attack it like they di JLRDA. Now they have the bounty of also attacking Ardor's child chains if penetration attacks on Ardor succeed. Will big organisations who invested heavily in Ethereum technology hit Ardor to play for time to convert, or pervert, have a dig too? There may be some big wasted budgets out there for them to protect.

Ardor/Ignis v Ethereum smart contracts was promoted as something Ador/Ignis could compete for development upon. Ardor/Ignis smart contracts are em>not programmable like Ethereum. Developers with experience of smart contracts will realise this is a major stumbling block to attracting new developments. Are Ardor/Ignis protagonists so naive? For my projects, I shall avoid Ardor/Ignis for this reason. If large developments stay with Ethereum for this reason, Jelurida will wait a long time for another opportunity to draw in big projects. If it were me, I would scrub that part of marketing for now, wait until taking an experience OEM negotiator on board, then again approach this line of audience acquisition after suitable modifications are made. And remember, Jelurida and ANG have a strong, very strong, track record of under-performing. At the astonishing speed blockchain technology is progressing, unfounded "it's coming" responses can only go wrong.

Technology apart, there's also time of year to consider. Christmas and New Year will normally bring a mild rise in prices as private traders enjoy their pastime. They go back to their employment, and the price drops. It also drops as the result of cashing out to pay for overspending during holidays. Last January came with a 25% cross-market crash by mid-January. Chinese traders kicked in to rescue, and markets rose. Spring Festival, or Chinese New Year, next comes on 16 February 2018. Chinese have two one-week holidays, when so many travel to their rural homes from big cities that journey trails can be seen from space. Spring Festival tradition requires that city workers show good money to their families, and red envelopes (hong bao) for youngsters and unmarried children of university age. That's when Chinese traders cash out, and markets fall. For time of year reasons too, I would avoid Ardor, probably until just after mid February.

Was the decision to launch Ardor/Ignis on 1st January naive from a marketing perspective? Markets fall in January. Traders move to reliable currencies and safe wallets.

Safe wallets? People download lots of software over the festive season. Some of that software may contain gremlins designed to snatch cryptocurrency from wallets. NXT wallet has a reputation for not being hacked in it's four years of existence, and NXT currency is not only stable, NXT is top USDT performer of 2017 (on Poloniex). If there's a place to run for cover, NXT is the place to go for security, not Ardor.

Then there's the obvious consideration: how many nodes will Ardor have up and running? Blockchain runs on nodes, different wallets and servers identifying transactions as okay or not okay. Insufficient nodes causes transactional delays, and a potential domino effect of delay and apparent software problems. Transactional delays cause people to go elsewhere, if so a rush out of Ardor may cause it to topple and prices to crash as we've seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum throughout the year. Long standing coins appear to recover. Ardor would not recover, it's too new.

Investment-wise, I suppose I've made out my case not, for now, to touch Ardor with a long pole. To me, it seems people gambling on an immediate Ardor rise after launch simply haven't done sufficient preparation. It may well take off with a big price rise, maybe, but Ardor seems too front heavy with hope. I want to watch for a month, let someone else take the risk. If it flies then I'll take the next flight, perhaps sometime in January, more likely in February or March 2018. I shall also want to see significantly more search interest for Ardor, for rising search trends indicate rising interest, and rising prices. Google Trends indicates NXT has greater interest than Ardor. Less than two weeks to launch and at the time of writing Ardor has not attracted search interest. That must be a marketing failure, and if marketing failure has occurred then it will take time to gain traction, and price. As late as 21 December 2017 at 21:30 there remained no NXT block snapshot announcement and no recent news on Jelurida's website. Meantime NXT is active, growing, and receiving significant attention. This lack of Ardor communication is a sign about Ardor needing to get in the air. Unfortunately, without wide scale trader confidence I fear a massive Ardor dump after launch. I hope, for Ardor protagonists, that doesn't happen. As an aside for Ardor folk, beware that any dump is not caused by BTC crashing: altcoins recover when BTC picks up.

Check your own vehicle, do your own research. Meanwhile, this way-point identified a requirement for potential course correction to avoid short term Ardor dangers. By keeping track firmly on examining whether NXT can reach $335, and avoiding Ardor drop after launch, as most coins do, then I'm also avoiding a need for emergency procedures.

Jelurida coming of age

The fifth way-point deals with safety. There's nothing more dangerous than a naive pilot. Look up, see any aircraft? Could you dodge one if it headed for you, or do anything if it headed for a school at playtime? Safety begins with flight crew.

In commerce, that means the team attempting to get that screaming, malformed pile of dreams airborne, under control, and flying straight and level without bumping into the ground or anything else at speed. And there's no aircraft of the future when it comes to corporate executive teams. There's no pilot being there to feed the dog, and dog being there to bite the pilot if he/she touches anything. It's all hands on, sometimes fun, often scary, and mostly frustrating — but executives must openly display the uniformed calm of a pilot who just landed.

In flying we have a pilot's nightmare named porpoising. It always occurs as the result of poor pilot attitude and consequential error. I knew very well a pilot who died this way, killing several others in the process. It happens when an aircraft centre of gravity is out of centre because weight and balance was not corrected after loading excess luggage or passengers. The aircraft rolls for take-off, takes off, due to forward balance noses down, the wheels hit the runway, and because speed continues to build it takes off again at a steeper angle. This time it rises higher before repeating the nose dive. It crashes and becomes an excruciatingly painful bloody mess.

Unsafe airplane
Figure 6: Unsafe airplane
Me, I wouldn't go near an Ardor aircraft with Jelurida execs on the flight deck. Too many captains. Good luck with collision avoidance. They know they have good technology that BIG sized competition doesn't. I'm not so convinced it's that good. They don't seem to have convinced potential more than a tiny few big customers they're in control. Marketing and PR resembles an executive team that's done enough work to get airborne without navigation plans or knowing how to land. If that aircraft lands safely before serious review of flight deck procedures the cockpit's going to smell a bit, and it's occupants will walk funny after their frightening journey.

Unkind? For those that don't know, Jelurida was formed from online psudonyms of their directors, including Jean-Luc (JeLu, Captain Picard) and Lior Yaffe (Ri, Riker). I'm deliberately not being unkind. I'm providing at outside perspective. It's a perspective that emphasises what Jelurida execs were six months ago to what they are now. Who do you think senior devops would rather deal with: someone named after a TV character then, or someone who has the calm disposition of knowledge and control now? That's what I see Lior Yaffe changing towards. If I'm right then at least one of my projects will move from Ethereum to the NXT family.

Unlike many blockchain technology and cryptocurrency executives, this particular team appear to be coming of age at a time when major competitors have a long way to go before being fully fledged corporate executives. I don't mean people who've had successful business exits, I mean fully fledged commercial gladiators straight out of The Coporate Infighters Handbook. It gives me confidence, but before editing this part to stoke it with more kindness I'd far prefer they brought in a professional captain with an infighter's reputation that big time developers and investors are willing to get on board with. If that's done, and techies adopt different titles, relinquishing the title of chief executive or managing director to a big timer, then they will play a crucial role as co-pilot or navigator. Price will fly. Big time! Let's face it, four years with good technology to have a USDT_NXT price of $0.6x instead of $18k+ (BTC) or $600+ (ETH) is compelling proof something wasn't right!

Coming of age? Guess what I discovered when researching the accuracy of this article?

Jelurida and NXT are bringing in new executives!!! Not sure I should mention who but one academically qualified multi-lingual European has 10+ years executive experience and successful venture exits. It looks set for her to lead market penetration and audience acquisition. The other, Elizabeth from North America, has a long track record academically and in business. Elizabeth heads ANG as CEO, providing goals, vision and leadership, with Jelurida taking care of business development.
All this needs is an internationally known figurehead. If that happens, I've heavily underestimated NXT at $335 by this time next year.

In summary on this last way-point, executive teams controlling NXT/Ardor/Ignis give the appearance of shedding naivety, becoming believable corporate executives. This whole scenario swivels a technical operation into a corporate organisation. Exciting times! However, this possibility must be balanced with:

Investors or potential development partners would want to avoid raised interest by European public investigators at a time when European politicians have a direct interest in dissuading those who would engage in ICOs with a criminal nature.

Bear in mind my motivation in this article. I'm wondering whether to shed NXT or stay with it for the year on the basis of investment gains. Safety is the major part of that motivation. I'm almost willing the executive team to bring someone in and create a marketing storyboard that let's everyone know what I perceive: that junior is almost an addult.

NXT $335+ fact or fantasy?

It's a lovely time of year to recall fondly those exceptional times, and look forward to next year with renewed spirit, calmly and without pressure of urgency. Reflections upon a few way-points from a pilot's ice cold perspective didn't reveal anything seriously obstructive to NXT rising x100s over 2018. Regardless of potential to hit x500, or x5, it does seem NXT has a safe disposition.

Like every other coin pair it goes up and down. If I want to make 10% profit, including trading commissions, today I need BTC to rise by $1,850. For the same NXT profit I only need a rise of $0.068, which happens frequently. NXT has good volatility but a safe trend.

Like every year in cryptocurrency trading we shall probably see a major exchange event on average every 6-8 weeks. I'll presume, for the sake of forming my thoughts, we shall see eight major events during 2018. NXT being demonstrably safe, and other majors not for reasons of hacks or drowning in fantasy kitten type products, it would not surprise me to see a rising chart adjusted for seasonal trades like this:

NXT price potential 2018
Figure 6: NXT price potential 2018
I'm exploring here. Have we seen these coin-pair increases before? Of course. Regularly. Cryptocurrency is extraordinary! Look for any fork and review exchange charts matching fork time. For example, the recent EMC2 fork:
EMC2 fork Nov 2017
Figure 7: EMC2 fork Nov 2017
In only 11 days from 24 November Einsteinium rose in price more than 11 times, from 0.0000169 to 0.0001953 BTC. My figures were taken from Poloniex. Other exchanges were reported with 2,800% increase in 30 days.

Whilst it's possible to achieve $335, or x500 what we set out with when being persuaded by Jelurida to invest in their offering, in this extraordinary world of cryptocurrency, others factors must be searched for. How can I possibly leave out of account that Jelurida executives dumped on their supporters in the knowledge that it was a critical period for investors to engage? How can I leave out of account corporate development teams will avoid people whose morals allow them to deliberately dump on people and change their minds about critical issues like NXT block snapshot for Ardor launch?? How can I leave out of account that Jelurida, when made aware of a major BTC fork conciding with Jelurida's changed NXT block snapshot date, did nothing, and especially did not change their release schedule to protect their investors?

Jelurida have a potentially disastrous situation designed to ruin brand and any trust major development teams may have in them. What will happen when Austrians learn of the association with A-Trust and Jelurida, and others in similar situations?

A-Trust Austrian city halls
Figure 8: A-Trust Austrian city halls
The time to fix potential for damage is now, before launch. Or cancel launch. If not, the moment media hounds start chasing stories the chance of anything above a $5 diminishes, and the risk of price collapse increases.

Is NXT $335+ fact or fantasy? NXT/Ardor/Ignis face the potential for heavy price reduction unless Jelurida executives do something before launch. If they have sold more NXT than the $15 million formally announced from ICO, they have very little time to begin buying all the extra NXT they sold, as a beginning to damage repair. Those outside Jelurida, but effectively part of decision making and operation processes are in no better position than the executives, so they can hurry trust repairs too. If that is done, then we're on track for a major price rise, and a major part in blockchain's game!

NXT/Ardor/Ignis trading conclusion Ignis price to rise

In the exercise of reviewing cryptocurrency price increases 2017, and after roving through factors potentially affecting NXT_USDT coin pair price in 2018, I've arrived at point in balance as regards trading.

[Big edit] I had arrived at my financial conclusion. Then I noticed something horribly, horribly bad but I shall continue from the notes I had written at the time. For the avoidance of doubt, as the result of what clearly seemed to be a scam, my thinking changed to NXT dumped by Jelurida, do not buy Ardor (it's dangerous) Ignis price to rise.

[Continued] No person can or should rely upon cryptocurrency exchange trading statistics, but if they're going to invest/gamble then first identify weaknesses and threats. My SWOT style review was taken in context with the ice cold systematic approach of an aircraft pilot, using SWOT analysis as a guide, not a large fund manager or investment house.

Weaknesses for NXT primarily arise from it's executive team, the evidence being that they must have worked with profound levels of naivety, if not somethimg else, to keep a long term technically competitive blockchain currency down at below $1 when competitors are sitting at close to 800 to 18,000 times that amount. It's hard to imagine what was going on to crush market price so catastrophically. That said, the primary weakness is disappearing fast as the executive team come to corporate maturity with executive incomers having strong track records. Another weakness concerns failure to deal with exchanges that allow market manipulation, like Poloniex. It is fraud. Exchange executives who allow it risk criminal prosecution. Jelurida hold the upper hand in demanding that exchanges disallow price manipulation.

The principle threat emerges not from any competitor but from Jelurida's new sister product, Ardor. It's difficult to imagine how a well funded organisation with an asset base of $10x millions could create the comic situation of being the only exchange trade competition against their major brand. Somehow, though, Jelurida have done it and underlined why lawyers should never head up corporations. Ardor is, at most, a modular upgrade, which is why it's original name was NXT 2.0. However, although a threat, Ardor is in no position to be a threat: the product's utility serves to allow child chains like Ignis, which could have been done with NXT. It wasn't because Ardor and Ignis

Turning to strengths and opportunities, I first thought it is beyond debate that Jelurida and the ANG have two significant strengths: a safe product not yet hacked in a market where so much of their competition suffered client losses of $10+ millions; and a second generation blockchain technology that easily outguns competitors. NXT 2.0 (Ardor) presents potential for complementary technology that will enhance opportunities for development of blockchain products (NXT and/or Ardor), with massive expansion (Ardor child chains), and third-party ICO opportunities (NXT). As more developments occur, with more PR for ICOs and product releases, the cryptocurrency trading community should expect a flood of news, all of which will promote NXT as a brand.

As for opportunities, if Jelurida turn their focus to acquiring a world class CEO they can expect to overtake most competition and attract significant corporate development. If they consider acquisition and merger to combine complementary technologies like SAFE (by MaidSafe) they could quickly provide third generation products that include distributed data storage.

In balance, there are issues for Jelurida to deal with. To me, they are not issues that will prevent significant rise in NXT price because the weaknesses are not strong or overwhelming. Price manipulation, for example, is easily brought to a halt by an exchange declaring it will stop trade fraud, in which case it can expect a rise in customer number, or investors with big pockets buying manipulators trades, which leave fraudsters nothing to trade with. Unlike weaknesses and threats, also suffered by other blockchain technology houses, Jelurida and the ANG have significant and overwhelming strengths and opportunities.

As compared to other blockchain houses, the balance clearly favours NXT.

What about the extent of that balance: is it possible for NXT to multiply x500 before this time next year? I don't know. It's certainly possible, and there are indicators.

Will NXT reduce in price? Given it's low price and x112 performance during 2017, it would astonish me if NXT did not drop in price.

What about the short term: will NXT rise x10 during soon after the launch period? That depends on Jelurida, their PR in this critical 10 day period, how much urgent pressure they put on exchanges, and whether they are willing to protect their investors by involving policing authorities.

Will I invest?

I've was doing so during earlier drafts but after Christmas I sold out before becoming a victim.

Having thought things through, my primary motivation is 50% free Ignis for each NXT I hold. Without NXT moving much I stand to raise my portfolio significantly. At the time of writing gave an Ignis futures high of $5.49 and sat at $2.06. Even if those prices are overstated, $1 would gift me $000s. If NXT rises a second time, about a week after Ardor launch, it's an indication of things to come. My only real concern is whether to sell Ignis when it launches. I'm leaning towards keeping it until the April milestone, when markets seem to adjust upwards. If it flies then it may well have a significant future. Meanwhile, for every ICO that comes to NXT I receive a portion of the 10% ICO fund that all NXT holders receive, so long as I continue to hold NXT. If a substantial number of projects and ICOs arrive I collect 10% of their fund: every time! Plus on 01 January, when Bitswift launches on Ardor chain, I receive 10% Bitswift for Ignis I hold, the Ignis being given free on 28 December. It seems impossible for me to lose. Against all this, investors are considering swapping NXT for Ardor? Well, it's that time of year when we should wish people good luck, but for those swapping NXT for Ardor I don't know if luck will be enough.

My secondary motivation for buying and holding NXT (at least for now) is that so much demand for NXT will occur in the days before 28 December that no amount of market manipulation will keep prices down. Manipulators will get bought out and lose the tools of their deception. I hope, and expect, prices will rise from Thursday 21 December because Thursday's are when private traders prepare for weekend trading, only this seasonal weekend will last until Thursday 28 in most countries! Investment houses may well miss out if I am correct. All of this may receive a boot in the pants from BTC futures funds launched by CME Group on 18 December (https://www.coindesk.com/cme-groups-first-bitcoin-futures-open-above-20000/) and CBOE a week before (https://www.coindesk.com/futures-launch-puts-record-bitcoin-highs-back-in-play/).

A good friend of mine has asked me for many weeks to indicate how to invest £10,000 in cryptocurrency. The best way I can describe my feedback is in a spreadsheet with free coin as part of launch (I've used USD in calculations).

NXT with Ignis prices
Figure 9: NXT with Ignis prices
That original investment can turn into almost double within two weeks, presuming a NXT-USDT rate of $1.12 (it's already hit $1.16), and Ignis futures price of $1.42 (almost half what futures exchanges indicate at time of writing). Bear in mind pre-launch futures prices are poor indication of launch price, but that 50% of NXT as Ignis makes a huge difference whatever the price at launch tu. I can supply a copy of the spreadsheet to those who want to try their own inputs.

There is one last issue I have not yet dealt with. Does the NXT/Ardor technology compete well with it's rivals? It's important because that's where all the PR, buzz and confidence making will be these coming weeks.

@vanbreuk, @riker I assume you know but the web wallet looks to be down. this is where @jelurida really should learn a lot about communicating... not even a tweet it's likely a load issue and they knew about that a couple of days ago.

More coming 31 December after 15:00 UTC...

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